In Colombia, a promising but unstable peace process

On November 30th, the Colombian Congress ratified a revised version of a long-awaited peace agreement between the government and the rebel group FARC. After a first agreement was narrowly rejected on October 2nd by popular referendum (50,2% voted against), President Juan Manuel Santos introduced a new version on November 24th

The negotiations between the Colombian government and the FARC, a rebel communist guerrilla group, have started in 2009 in La Havana, Cuba. They aim at ending a 52 year old conflict that has left more than 200 000 dead and displaced millions of Colombians. Throughout the process, President Juan Manuel Santos has benefited from the support of the Colombian population in his attempt at finding a non-military solution to the conflict. Last summer, both parties reached a historic agreement but it was rejected by the Colombian population when a referendum took place on October 2nd. 

The reasons for this rejection are held in several points. First of all, the agreement, a 300-pages document, has been difficult to advocate for and to explain to the population. Moreover, campaigners against the agreement made themselves heard much more efficiently. The debate has stalled on one particular issue:  the “transitional-justice” frame provided by the agreement in which FARC leaders would be able to avoid jail sentences should they confess their crimes. Instead of serving jail sentences they would only be subject to restricted liberty sentences (community sentences, house arrests). The dispositions of the agreement also give to the FARC leaders five seats at the Congress. The thought of seeing the FARC leaders escaping jail and entering Congress has left many Colombians doubtful about whether this agreement was a good solution to end the conflict, and advocates for the “No” have enhanced this fear. 

For the past months, as the referendum date came closer, Alvaro Uribe, Colombia's ex-President has led the “No” campaign, protesting against an agreement he deemed too indulgent towards FARC leaders. M. Uribe, who had nominated Juan Manuel Santos as Ministry of Defence during his term, has also expressed his opposition to the dispositions aiming at returning territories the FARC had conquered over the years to the people that were displaced. According to him, in doing so, the country would put at risk the national economic stability since some of these territories were later acquired by honest businesses when the FARC were gone. Asking them to return those territories today would be inappropriate and hurt the country’s economy. For his critics, Mr. Uribe’s interest in these negotiations has hardly anything to do with the country’s economic stability but rather with his personal bonds with some of the country’s richest oligarchs who might be concerned about their businesses’ future under the agreement.

As a matter of fact, after the first version of the agreement was rejected, Mr. Uribe asked for the dispositions regarding land retribution to be changed. However, President Juan Manuel Santos acted quickly to draw another version of the agreement, adding slight changes so it would appear less lenient towards FARC rebels. This time, he did not submit the agreement to a referendum but to Congress approval. During the vote, opponents inside Congress had left the chamber to show their disapproval and to discredit the agreement.

Now the agreement has been voted, its implementation is to be watched carefully. The conflict, the largest in the history of Latin America, has deeply affected the country’s development. Many Colombians have been marginalized during the conflict and the State has failed to keep a presence in many rural territories. Consequences of this peace agreement will unfold over a long period of time. FARC rebels will progressively leave the territories they occupy for the Colombian State to take over and implement social development programs.

Colombia’s strong economic performances over the past years show just how much potential the country has. For some observers, without the FARC conflict, the country could have become the region’s leader in terms of economic and social development. Speculations around the economic benefits of the peace process in Colombia have to be taken with great care. The Treasury department in Colombia has forecasted the country could gain between 1% and 2% of annual GDP, given the dispositions of the agreement are implemented. The main sector expected to grow in Colombia is the infrastructure sector as the government has promised to launch a country-wide investment program aiming at connecting marginalised territories to the main cities. Moreover, in a long-term perspective, companies in Colombia will look to cut progressively their assets allocated to ensure their security.

If Colombia's peace process has been largely regarded as an example by the international society, the last few months have shown just how unstable it is. The agreement is ambitious and its implementation will depend on many factors. One of them will be the government's legitimacy. As a matter of fact, by pushing for a revised version of the agreement through Congress, President Santos has lost credit towards the population.